Iran’s
Heightened Fears of MEK Dissidents Are a Sign of Changing Times
Iran has
been the center of international attention in 2018. In light of unprecedented,
continuous protests and strikes at home, a faltering economy, growing regional
and international isolation, and the imposition of massive US sanctions, there
are growing signs that the status quo has become untenable and the
regime is finding it much more difficult to contain the situation. The
theocratic regime’s new onslaught against its opponents, most notably against
the principal opposition, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran or
Mujahedin-e-Khalq (PMOI/MEK), is a serious indicator of changing times in Iran.
In addition to domestic repression, the multi-faceted campaign against the MEK
entails terror plots in the West and massive disinformation and demonization in
the media and on the Internet.
Continuation of protests: The new Iran
The most
defining aspect of Iran in 2018 has been the continuation of anti-government
protests. The wave of protests that started in the last days of 2017 and
expanded to more than 140 cities in all 31 provinces shook the ruling theocracy
to the core. That movement has continued in different shapes and forms over the
past 11 months, despite a heavy crackdown, waves of arrests, and long prison terms
for protesters.
After the
first wave of protests between late December and mid-January, the situation has
changed dramatically and protests have erupted in various parts of the country.
After the first wave of protests, the big question was whether it was just a
short-lived phenomenon that the regime was able to contain. The Iranian
opposition maintained that the protests would adapt and continue. The past 11
months have clearly demonstrated the prescience of opposition leader MaryamRajavi, who heads the opposition’s coalition, the National Council of
Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which includes the MEK. She correctly anticipated
that the regime would be unable to turn the tide.
On October
14 and 15, teachers all across Iran took part in a nationwide strike covering
more than 100 cities, including Mashhad, Marivan, Isfahan, Hamedan, Karaj,
Homayounshahr, and Ahvaz. The teachers protested poor living conditions,
problems with their jobs and heavy security measures imposed on their schools.
They also called for the release of their jailed colleagues. According to human
rights observers, the Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guards’
Security and Intelligence Departments have arrested or issued a summons for a
number of teachers in various provinces across the country.
Truck
drivers have taken part in four nationwide strikes in 2018, encompassing more
than 300 cities. Some of these lasted as long as three weeks. This has created
a major crisis since 90% of goods are transported by truck. The prosecutor
general in Qazvin province, in central Iran, called for the execution of 17
detained truck drivers who were arrested during the third round of nationwide
strikes in October.
According to
information provided by the network of the MEK inside Iran, merchants in more
than 50 Iranian cities went on strike and refused to open for business on Oct
8. The strike, which was preplanned and widely promoted across social media
channels, protested rising prices and high inflation rates. According to MEK
network, this movement spread to many of Iran’s major cities including Mashhad,
Tabriz, Kermanshah, Gorgan, Zanjan, Baneh, Marivan, Tabriz, Sanandaj, Saqqez,
Abadan, Urumiyeh, Zahedan, Arak, Kerman, Isfahan, Qom, Qazvin, and Sardasht.
In June,
protests that had started in a number of other cities and towns spread to the
capital of Tehran, where they continued for days. In July, a five-day wave of
anti-government protests proved to be the largest since January and encompassed
more than a dozen cities. In July, a five-day wave of anti-government protests
proved to be the largest since January and covered more than a dozen cities
throughout the country. And in August, Tehran and 26 other cities saw protests
by angry people from all strata of society. This reflects trends that have been
apparent since the mass uprising that marked the beginning of the year. What
makes recent and ongoing protests different from earlier movements is that they
are not limited to one part of the country or to any specific demographics.
Broad-based participation
The social
base of the protests is growing. At first, it primarily consisted of those whom
the regime describes as “the army of the hungry and unemployed.” Unemployment
is at least 30 percent and in some cities and towns, it is greater than 50
percent for the youth. The overwhelming majority of Iranians are living below
the poverty line, even as Iran remains a rich and resourceful country and one of
the world’s principal exporters of petroleum and natural gas.
In April,
heavy truck owners staged a nationwide strike for two weeks. In June, Bazaar
merchants, the traditional backbone of the Iranian economy, took part in
protests in Tehran alongside a large number of shopkeepers. That signaled that
the middle class was frustrated and saw no future in the status quo. The
youth and women have also played a very prominent role in the protests.
Some of the
public frustration is reflected in reports by international media. The
Associated Press reported on September 13 from the Tehran Bazaar:
Elsewhere in
the market, some even defended Trump, like Mahdirashid Mohammadzadeh, whose
small stall in the jewelry section of the bazaar has seen customers eagerly
buying gold as a hedge against the falling rial…Asked what caused the economic
woes, Mohammadzadeh blamed Iran’s costly foreign intervention in Syria. “This
is the people’s money,” he said. “We have done nothing wrong to deserve this,
but they are sending all our money to Syria.”
Radio France
Inter, reported on October 21 from Tehran:
Sarah, 34,
designer, mother of a 6-month-old baby: “It is getting to be very very
difficult for us. Sometimes I don’t even have money to buy diapers or milk for
my daughter. The price of diapers has tripled. It’s really expensive. Sanctions
have made us poorer, but I can tolerate this situation because I hope that this
regime will be overthrown and will be replaced by a better government…”
Reporter: Do
you think Trump is doing the right thing by re-imposing the sanctions?
Sarah: “This
is not a good thing, but if you look at it at a high level, I think he is doing
the right thing because these pressures can lead to the overthrow of the
Islamic Republic. If all these things would lead to the downfall of the regime,
I am prepared to sleep on the streets for six months with my husband and my
daughter.”
Unified, popular demands are growing
At first,
the protests were over dire economic hardship, exorbitant prices of basic
staples, high unemployment, runaway inflation and the lack of some of the most
basic social services including running water and electricity. But protests
quickly became political with people calling for an end to dictatorship, since
the regime was unable and unwilling to respond to any of their demands.
People
demanded that the regime stop supporting terrorism, meddling in affairs of
other countries like Syria and proliferating ballistic missiles and that it
focuses instead on their acute problems, which have steadily been getting
worse. They also demanded freedom, democracy and respect for human rights.
Women, especially young women, played a key role in demanding an end to
institutionalized discrimination.
One of the
regime’s state media outlets said on August 8 that when the protests started in
late 2017, it took a day or two for people’s demands to become political. In
June and July, it took a few minutes. This was the direct result of a
catastrophic economic situation, which has been exacerbated by rampant
corruption and the regime’s blatantly misplaced priorities.
Precarious economic situation
The Iranian
economy has been in free-fall and is getting more precarious. The national
currency, the rial, has lost about 75 percent of its value in the past seven to
eight months. According to Steve Hanke, a professor of Applied Economics at
John Hopkins University, the inflation for basic staples was more than 110
percent last year.
This is
despite the fact that the regime was able to export up to 2.7 million barrels
of oil per day until recently, with virtually no sanctions in place prior to
July 6. The regime received about $100 billion dollars of unfrozen assets and
dozens of European companies went to Iran for business.
The main
cause of the economic collapse is the regime’s policies. The lion’s share of
the government budget is allocated to the apparatus of domestic repression and
to financing terror and warmongering abroad. For instance, the Iranian regime
has spent, on average, somewhere between $12 to $15 billion dollars annually in
Syria propping up the Assad regime even as it slaughtered the defenseless
people of Syria.
Another
cause is rampant corruption and embezzlement. The situation has gotten so out
of control that recently the First Vice President of the regime said corruption
has reached the highest echelons of the government. Very tellingly, in his
speech on August 13, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei acknowledged the main reason
for the economic woes are the regime’s mismanagement, policies, and corruption.
He referred to one case where “$18 billion dollars of the country’s currency”
was plundered.
Fourteen
financial holdings control almost every aspect of the Iranian economy, and
these holdings are all controlled in turn by the supreme leader or the
Revolutionary Guards. Khamenei has a personal, off-the-books hedge fund called
the Setad that was worth $95 billion dollars as of 2013, according to an
estimate by Reuters. This is used as a slush fund for Khamenei’s sinister
objectives. These 14 holdings, through their control of every major sector of
the Iranian economy from oil and gas to transportation, ports, and
telecommunications, are plundering the country.
In light of
this, international sanctions will be able to choke off the regime’s ability to
finance its repression at home and its belligerence abroad. Already, some 100
companies based in Europe and elsewhere have pulled out of the Iranian market
following the US withdrawal in May from the Iran nuclear deal, or Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This is one of the greatest sources of
anxiety for Tehran, as it threatens to cut off the regime’s chief instruments
of plunder.
International isolation and the
re-imposition of US sanctions
President
Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA signaled that after years of conciliation,
the US has adopted a much more robust policy on Tehran. Washington resorted to
massive sanctions against the regime with the objective of changing its
strategic conduct and behavior. In a major speech on May 21, Secretary of State
Mike Pompeo articulated 12 actions that the US expected Tehran to take:
Declare to
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) a full account of the prior
military dimensions of its nuclear program and permanently and verifiably
abandon such work in perpetuity.
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