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OPINION: 2019 BRINGS NEW OPPORTUNITY TO TOPPLE THE IRANIAN
REGIME
With 2018 coming to a close, it’s time for policymakers to
re-examine strategies for confronting Iran’s dictatorship. There have been
unique changes in Iranian affairs and policy since the end of last year. New
opportunities — and new threats — have arisen.
One year ago, the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was still in full
effect. Now, all U.S. sanctions on the Islamic Republic have come back into
full force. One year ago, Iran’s domestic situation appeared relatively stable,
but within weeks it had erupted into a mass uprising that spanned every major
city and town, giving rise to virtually unprecedented anti-government slogans.
And one year ago, the Iranian threat to Western nations was largely theoretical
and vaguely defined; today, the United States and Europe have faced down at
least four terrorist plots targeting Iranian activists on Western soil.
Proponents of Iranian democracy are overwhelmingly supportive
of the assertive shift in Iranian policy spearheaded by the Trump
administration in the United States. Though the nations of Europe were
initially hesitant to align themselves with that shift, there are,
increasingly, signs that this may be changing.
In the wake of a recent ballistic missile test by the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps, the U.N. Security Council held a closed-door meeting
at the behest of France and the United Kingdom, thereby bringing more pressure
on the international community to sanction Tehran over its persistently
belligerent activities. Even before that, a meeting of foreign ministers
signaled that the European Union was considering the general adoption of
sanctions that the French government had unilaterally imposed after completing
an investigation into the June 30 plot to bomb an international gathering of
Iranian expatriates near Paris.
That event, the National Council of Resistance of Iran
(NCRI)’s annual Iran Freedom rally was attended by an estimated 100,000 people.
The international composition of the crowd highlighted the strong and growing
pressure that exists for international support for the Iranian resistance
movement led by its president-elect, Mrs. Maryam Rajavi.
In the year ahead, there ought to be renewed attention to the
potential for transformative change in the Islamic Republic. Already, the
Iranian expatriate community has been a source of support for the popular
protests that the Iranian regime has been struggling to contain for the
entirety of 2018. The mass uprising at the start of the year has spawned a wide
variety of smaller but broadly interconnected protests, which have kept the
same anti-government slogans alive.
Rajavi delivered a message at the Iranian New Year in March
calling for a “year full of uprisings” leading to the people’s “final victory”
over the dictatorial theocratic dictatorship.
While the nationwide uprising was still in full swing, Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly attributed this to “the rapid spread and
the provocative messaging” of pro-freedom forces. This stood in contrast to the
regime’s long-standing policy of downplaying the strength and popularity of the
organized resistance movement.
Surely, this should have awakened Western policymakers to the
potential for a wholesale change of government in Iran. But just in case the
significance of Khamenei’s admission escaped the world’s attention, the Iranian
expatriate community will highlight it once again on Dec. 15, alongside the
various successes of the ongoing protest movement.
In the wake of that message, it will surely be more difficult
than ever for the nations of Europe to resist the push for sanctions on Iran,
or the American shift toward more assertive policies. Over the past year, the
Paris bomb plot and other similar threats have made the danger of Iranian
terrorism a chilling and imminent reality.
At the same time, the evolution of Iran’s domestic situation
has provided the world with an unprecedented opportunity to effectively
confront this threat while also helping the Iranian people to bring about
change in their country — a change that would not only achieve political and
social democracy for themselves but significant security benefit to the Western
world.
Lord Maginnis of Drumglass is an independent Ulster Unionist
member of the UK House of Lords and member of the British Committee for Iran Freedom.
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